Start quickly in simple mode, or model real play sequences in advanced mode.
Calculates both the chance of drawing at least the required number of target cards and the chance of drawing exactly the desired count.
DrawState calculates everything in your browser, from a simple deck-and-target ratio to a sequence with mulligans, draws, searches, multiple goals, and resource costs.
Enter deck size, opening-hand size, target copies, and the minimum needed. With no effects or mulligan, DrawState uses an exact calculation with no sampling error.
Advanced mode can evaluate checked cards or selected tags. Choose AND when every goal is required and OR when any one of them is enough.
Configure first-turn draws, mulligans, draw and search effects, and resource costs in play order. Rules and effects you do not enter are not included in the model.
Keep the success condition and target turn fixed, then change card counts. Simulation runs are reproducible when their settings, seed, and trial count are the same.
Suppose a 40-card deck has three target copies and needs at least one in a five-card opening hand. With no effects or mulligan, the exact results are:
33.76% opening success · 30.11% chance of exactly one copy